Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Drops To 11.37% In Jan, Peaks In Kebbi, Bauchi

In what may stand this week out as one of big data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Friday published yet another economic report- the January Consumer Price Index, or inflation, ahead of Saturday’s all-important Presidential and National Assembly polls.

The report showed headline inflation growth rate dropping Year-on-Year to 11.37%, from 11.44% in December 2018, even when core inflation climbed to 9.9% from 9.8%; while food inflation slowed down from 13.56% to 13.51%.
Reacting to the report, analysts at Cordros Securities Ltd, told its clients: “the data came in line with our forecast of 11.37% y/y, but 13 bps below Bloomberg compiled average estimate of 11.50% y/y.”

So far this week, the NBS has published the GDP data for 2018Q4 and full-year (READ), as well as the capital importation report (READ MORE).
While the January inflation fell 0.07% lower than the rate in December 2018, on a month-on-month basis, headline index at 0.74% did not change from the level in December.

According to the NBS, “percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending January 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.80%, showing 0.3% point from 12.1% recorded in December 2018.”
Urban inflation rate climbed by 11.66% year-on-year in January, compared to 11.73% recorded in December 2018, while rural inflation rate increased by 11.11% in January 2019 from 11.18% in December 2018.
On a month-on-month basis, urban index rose by 0.77% in January 2019, up by 0.01% from 0.76% recorded in December 2018, while the rural index also rose by 0.71% in January 2019, a slight improvement from the 0.72% recorded in December.

“The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 12.20% in January 2019. This is less than 12.51% reported in December 2018, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in January 2019 is 11.46% compared to 11.75% recorded in December 2018.
The rise in food inflation in January, the NBS said, followed “increases in prices of Fish, Bread and cereals, Vegetables, Meat, Fruits, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, oils and fats, soft drinks.”

On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index rose by 0.83% in January 2019, up by 0.02% points from 0.81% recorded in December 2018, just as average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the 12-month period ending January 2019 over the previous 12-month average was 13.93%, 0.42% points from the average 14.35% annual rate of change recorded in December 2018.

“The ”All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.9 percent in January 2019, up by 0.1 percent when compared with 9.8 percent recorded in December 2018.

“On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.81% in January 2019, up by 0.31% when compared with 0.50% recorded in December 2018, with the highest increases recorded in prices of domestic and household services, tobacco, major household appliances, whether electronic or not, as well as medical and dental services, garments, narcotics, cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, carpet and other floorings.

“The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 10.34% for the 12-month period ending January 2019; which is 0.17% points lower than 10.51% in December 2018,” the report added.
On state-by-state basis, January’s all-item inflation was highest in Kebbi in the North West at 14.64%, possibly driven by the food inflation of 16.45% of which it ranked highest also; followed by Bauchi in the North East at 13.79%; while Jigawa, also in the North West reported 13.17%.

The rate was however slowest in Ogun at 9.01%; while Cross River followed with 9.24%; and Kwara, 9.28%; while month on month, January 2019 all items inflation was highest in Delta at 1.66%; Ondo, 1.55%; and Borno, 1.44%.
Meanwhile, “Ekiti, Nasarawa and Osun recorded negative inflation or price deflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in January 2019,” the report added.

In terms of food inflation, Delta followed Kebbi YoY with a 16.27% climb; ahead of 15.63% by Ondo, while Ogun’s 10.99% made it the state with the slowest rise recorded, trailed by Enugu with 11.64%; and Plateau, 11.83%.

MoM however, January 2019 food inflation was highest in Delta at 2.73%; 2.5% in Kwara; and 2.22% in Ondo; “while Anambra, Ekiti, Enugu, Imo, Nasarawa, Osun and Zamfara all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in January 2019.”

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/02/nigerias-inflation-rate-drops-to-11-37-in-jan-peaks-in-kebbi-bauchi/