WHERE TO INVEST AND EXPECTATIONS FOR NOVEMBER, DECEMBER

The global economy recorded stronger recovery and growth, helped by the recent positive data emanating from the developed world, especially the rising price of commodities, particularly crude oil and others, despite uncertainties here and there as a result geopolitical issues, added to North Korea’s missile threat that remains a cause for concern among investors.  Economic uncertainty as Fed continued to hike rate in the name of managing inflation that had relatively remain moderate.

Back home, the recent corporate earnings of listed companies confirm the positive macro-economic data that confirms the fact that Nigeria is finally out of recession, growing by 0.55% as shown in the Q2 GDP figure released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This is besides the declining inflation rate, although slower than expected; Just as Purchasing Managers Index recorded the most significant jump so far at 64.8 in October, from the previous month’s 58.5, helped by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention, export inflow, oil companies and financial institutions, that supported the relative stability in exchange rate and continued to attract inflow and impact positively on the domestic economy.

In November, we expect inflation for the month of October to continue its gradual downward movement; just as the PMI improves again to further support the recovery in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector as Q3 numbers from the sector beat  market  and analysts expectation.

With only few quarterly earnings expected in this month, only investors and analysts are expected to reposition and balance their portfolios ahead of full year earnings in 2018, based on their interpretation of the scorecards and changes that will keep the market oscillating.

The Q3 numbers are expected to strengthen market fundamentals as the business environment continues to look up, while the low valuation of stocks, despite their huge intrinsic value remains a plus and should guide investors to know where to look while seeking to invest profitably for the rest of the year and beyond.

Traders and investors who understand the importance of combining fundaments and technical analysis in making investment decisions in the stock market should take this opportunity of any pullback in prices to position in some sectors for short, medium and long term gains, especially in the fast moving consumer goods, banking, agribusiness, building material and healthcare after carefully study of the recent price pattern and fundamental data available in the market.

What to expect in November and December

• Seasonal trending as few quarterly numbers are expected and there will be impact. However, blue-chip companies will continue to oscillate on the strength of company and market fundamentals as repositioning and rebalancing stays till end of the year.
• The oscillating trend of equity prices as a result of repositioning of portfolio along the line of positive numbers by foreign and local investors will boost activities in the remaining months of the year.
• Market outlook for the new month remain mixed as few quarterly and no full year earnings are expected. But positive sentiments and strong momentum may not be out of place as the market expects the economic recovery to be strengthened with the last hour implementation of 2017 budget.     
• The relative low price to earnings in the market may further attract demand for stocks, but invest wisely, using bids, offers and volume when taking decisions as a trader.
• Managing risk and protecting capital at this point is very important, so you will be able to determine when to buy or sell, by watching the stocks and the market, using technical analysis. 
• Let numbers released by companies guide you decision and time to stay in that position.

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Best regards
Ambrose Omordion
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467