AFTER THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS SEASON, WHAT NEXT?

What should investors seek from the just concluded earnings reporting season which is  third quarter  reports  for December year- end companies and  second quarter for march year end company, while September year end companies are expected to release their full year ended September 30, 2017 before the end of the year.  

How should investors position for robust returns? Let me share a few lines here.

Go back to the performance of previous quarters to review the pattern within the current financial year of any company in question.

In other words, what has the earnings trend been like in the last two or three quarters?
Please note that companies with consistent incremental performances are most suitable for investment purposes as the probability of a better last quarter performances are higher in those. You might choose to dwell on the reasons for the inconsistent performance patterns, including the fact that some companies do have cyclical sales trends for which reason the quarterly performances are bound to vary sharply.

Take note of such stocks and act accordingly.

Add up the three quarter earnings that you now have to see what the average performances would be. Or better still, find the average of the last four quarters, that is, add the three quarters of current  year and the fourth for previous year, then divide your answer by four to get the average. This is important to project what the dividend possibilities are. To do this right, you might now need to consider previous year’s performances to see any similar trend or divergence. Companies with identical trends with previous years’ performance level are easier to project than those with divergent trends. In cases of divergence, seek to know what the issues are so as to take advantages or cut your loss swiftly.

The industry wherein the companies you are researching operate is key. For example, manufacturing concerns tend to release audited reports to the market faster than banks and insurance stocks. Equities like Vitafoam, Forte Oil, United Capital, and Nestle as well as in some cases, Cadbury are known to be among early fliers in the market every year, as their results often hit the market between four to eight weeks after the end of the financial year.

 The reason is not far-fetched: Such companies do not present their financials to a regulator for approval before being released to the market, unlike banks and their insurance cousins particularly whose results go through the Central Bank of Nigeria or the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM). Over the last three financial years most insurance companies have had to grapple with new challenges posed by the new international accounting standards, which the banks had to contend with long before now.

Summarily, note the period to expect the audited result with the release of the third quarter result and position right.

Please note also that quarterly results alone will not determine equity prices even in the very short-term, as a result, learn to keep tab on the prevailing market situation to measure the probable impact of the third quarter performances on stock prices. In other words, positive earnings in an uptrend will most probably lead to further uptrend, while positive earning in a downtrend might not impact much. Negative earning in an uptrend won’t move price up in as much as the decline might not be sharp.

Ten per cent price circuit will propel a fast reaction to earnings report, leading to early equilibrium price level in response to earnings.

The implication of this is that positive results might not experience a bull run for more than a week after which profit takers will besiege the market to slow down price activities, ditto negative earning. The best every investor must learn to do at this point is to be technical-analysis compliant for the best of short term market play in anticipation of quarterly and full year audited reports.

Investors who may not be desirous of technical analysis skill could be shooting themselves in the foot because they might be buying at the end of an initial rally in response to positive earnings as profit takers dump stocks on them while traders will re-enter when audited report are near, in equities where projections of final dividends are likely to be positive.

The closure and payment date for third-quarter interim dividend paying companies are below

	Period	Amount(N)	Closure Date	Payment Date
NB	Sept-30- 2017	1.00	Nov-16-2017	Nov-23-2017
Nestle	Sept-30- 2017	15.00	Nov-27-2017	Dec-11-2017
Total	Sept-30- 2017	3.00	Dec-4-2017	Dec-18-2017

 Note Qualification date for Total Nigeria Plc dividend is December 1, 2017

Attention! Attention!! Attention!!!

INVEST 2018 TRADERS & INVESTORS FINANICAL SUCCESS SUMMIT

Sub Topics

The Pre-election Economy & 2018 Budget: Implementation and Impact On the Recovery Bull Market

In this presentation, Razaq Abiola, a seasoned analyst will Review the Economy and impact of government policies so far, discussing how the proposed N8.6tr budget will influence the economy in pre-election year. He will also take participants through the outlook for the stock market in 2018. He would attempt to answer a question like: Is there really anything to cheer from the mere size of the 2018 budget, considering how those of the past two years have been implemented, especially during the economic recovery phases?

Our carefully selected team of seasoned market analysts and traders would also take participants through topics such as:

Comprehensive Earnings Guide for Investing and Trading in 2018 Earnings Season Profitably

“Equity price movement is a function of earnings in the short run and long term,” market reaction to earnings in any market cycles is prolonged by dividend payout, relative to price. It makes a lot of sense to trade in the direction by knowing the companies that will grow their payout in 2018… as long as you identify such stocks in their early stages. Hindsight, as they say, earnings calendar, trend, surprise and quality of numbers are very useful in making profitable investment decision in 2018 and beyond. 

The Secret For Finding Better Trades & Investment Opportunity

Discover how to Trade Smarter, How You Can Stay on the Right Side of the Market Most of the Time, as well as specific, high winning probability, chart patterns Trading Price Direction based on Momentum Flows, The current market cycles, how they are used for trading price direction, in addition to How to set realistic & achievable profit.

How to Pick Investable Stocks: Using working Models/Tactics of Experts and Professionals to improve your Trading Profit

In this presentation you will learn: How the gurus pick stocks, depending on their different investment goals, whether for dividend Income. Or, are you a momentum trader who wants to grow your wealth through the stock market? Even If you’re a complete beginner – What is model, And Why Was It The Top Performing strategy of 2015, 2016 and 2017 so far.

Impact and Implication of NSE New Rules on your Equity Investment in 2018 and Beyond.

The new strategies to trade and invest in the transforming market will be revealed to boost players profit and minimized losses. Also the classes of stocks to focus on, in this new market normal value of 1kobo in 2018. 

This summit is the perfect opportunity to learn from the best industry experts and to get the personal attention in the exclusive Q&A session after presentations! Date Saturday December 9, 2017
To register for the coming summit Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467 or 08111811223.

N.B: At this event you’ll hear real case studies and see examples of exactly how you can use these same techniques. This summit is packed with great content, but the room only has capacity for 100 people and registration is ongoing, so you’ll need to act fast.
If you are looking for a way to make money in the market as a Full-time or Part-time trader or investor, this is your opportunity.

Dream it! Wish it! Do it! Enjoy it! Don’t Miss out

Best regards

Ambrose Omordion
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467