ANXIETY, AS INVESTORS AWAIT OUTCOME OF MSCI INDEX REVIEW, OCTOBER INFLATION, Q3 GDP DATA

MARKET UPDATE FOR WEEK ENDED NOVEMBER 10 AND OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13-17

Equity market over the past week recorded a mixed performance with three trading sessions of bull market and two days down that was very volatile on low volume to closed higher on market sentiments.

The market’s behaviour last week is important, given the fact that President Muhammadu Buhari presented the Appropriation Bill for 2018 to National Assembly, the high point of which was the plan to spend an estimated N8.6tr. It is important because the announcement did not  impact the market as investors seemed unmoved by the huge  fiscal spending plan of government, a situation that may not be unconnected with the fact that the previous two budget (2016 and 2017) had seemingly little or no impact on the system and especially the well-being of the people. The failure of the market to respond may also have something to do concerns, particularly by foreign investors, who contribute a sizeable chunk of invested funds in the Nigerian market, about the downgrade of Nigeria’s sovereign by international rating agency Moody’s. As if these were not enough bad news already, banks operating within the sovereign were equally downgraded, amidst their bloating non-performing loans. Worse still is the fact that government is heavily indebted and incapable of rescuing them should the need arise and a stress testing is conducted in the nation’s financial system.  

 The recent Q2 and Q3 numbers revealed the health status of the quoted companies and have been the basis of ongoing portfolio rebalancing, repositioning and profit taking by investors and traders ahead of the November 13, 2017 review of the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital Index) Frontier index expected to further expose the market to more foreign fund managers. This is expected to drive price, except for some banks downgraded over their risk exposure. INVESTDATA had noted this trend in the current financial year where some major banks in the country reported declining customer deposits, a sign of the problem that lies ahead. We note that like in the manufacturing sector, when a company’s earnings is growing and operating cash-flow declining, such earnings growth is not sustainable. This is why investors must be eternally vigilant when studying company financials as a basis for decision making. This is why the INVEST 2018 Summit is an opportunity for you to arm yourself for knowledge-based investing, going forward. 

The bull-run continued for the second consecutive week to breakout the recent market resistance level at the psychological line of 37,000 basis points, signaling uptrend that would be driven by year end seasonal changes and cycles.

Market technicality for the period under review were mixed but positive as market breadth was marginally positive. The weekly volume index was 0.85, with buying pressure of 86% and 14% selling position of the total transaction, as traders continue to position ahead of the review of the MSCI Frontier Index and end of the year trends.    

The benchmark NSE All-Share index gained 180.69 points to close the week at 36,37,120.28 points, from an opening figure of 36,939.59 points, representing a 0.49% growth  after touching  the week’s high of 37,156.28 from a 36,907.07 low on a  lower volume of transactions, as traders  continued to take profit and rebalance their trading positions.  Market capitalisation for the period closed higher at N12.85tr from the opening value of N12.79tr, representing 0.49% value gain in the investors’ position.

For the period under consideration, low and medium cap stocks dominate the advancers’ table as a result of low price attraction and strong earnings power that is expected to support prices appreciation and payout. 

Value gain of these classes of stocks impacted positively on the NSE ASI’s year-to-date return to 38.06%, just as market capitalisation for the period increased to N3.59tr, representing a 38.87% gain from the year’s opening value.

Market breadth was positive with advancers’ outpacing decliners in the ratio of 30:29 on a low volume of trades that is lower than that of the previous week.

The developed economies stock markets during the week were mixed due to extreme drop in the Japanese stock market, while its Nikkei within the period made a new multi-decade high, and the Topix index touched a new 26-year high.  Shortly thereafter, however, profit takers moved in, closing the Nikkei 225 lower afterwards.  

Back home, the week’s trading opened on a negative note with marginal loss of 0.02%, which was halted on Tuesday and Wednesday’s trading sessions when the index gained 0.22% and 0.34% respectively. The positive trend was however reversed on Thursday as the indicators closed 0.24% down, turning green the following day when it notched 0.19%, leaving the week 0.49% better than it opened. 

The composite index and sectoral indices closed in the green for the week, except for the NSE Insurance and NSE Consumer Goods that lost 1.09% and 0.07% respectively.

Market activities by volume and value, were up by 2.91% and 22.19% respectively at 1.32bn shares worth N13.78bn from the previous week of 1.36bn units valued at N17.71 billion.

Best performing stocks for the period were Caverton and Cadbury that topped the advancers’ log, gaining 30.23% and 22.06% respectively, on the low price attraction and improved Q3 numbers.  

The worst performing equity was Champion Breweries, which lost 14.34% at N2.09 on market forces, while Linkage Assurance followed with 12.82% drop to close at N0.68 per share on market forces.

During the week, Morison Industries opened its right issues on Friday November 10, 2017 to close at December 19, 2017

Market Outlook
This week, the market volatility will continue as events like MSCI Index review, October inflation figure and Q3 GDP are expected within period as trader take advantage of volatility and the numbers to repositioning and rebalancing of portfolio ahead of year-end sentiments.
Although the earnings season is officially over, expect more numbers from laybacks. But one thing that is clear in the current market situation is: Smart investors are accumulating and enhancing their positions in selected stocks.

Again, we advise that investors allow numbers to guide their decisions while repositioning for the rest of the year trading activities, especially now that prices of stocks are looking down amidst improving economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to use your technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position.

Investing in the stock market is in phases. You must know this in order to manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in this oscillating market or pullbacks sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.
Get your home study pack today and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy. By investing and trading knowledgeable in this recovery market.

The workshop materials on Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available.
 Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467 or 08111811223.

Attention! Attention!! Attention!!!

INVEST 2018 TRADERS & INVESTORS FINANICAL SUCCESS SUMMIT

Sub Topics

The Pre-election Economy & 2018 Budget: Implementation and Impact On the Recovery Bull Market

In this presentation, Razaq Abiola, a seasoned analyst will Review the Economy and impact of government policies so far, discussing how the proposed N8.6tr budget will influence the economy in pre-election year. He will also take participants through the outlook for the stock market in 2018. He would attempt to answer a question like: Is there really anything to cheer from the mere size of the 2018 budget, considering how those of the past two years have been implemented, especially during the economic recovery phases?

Our carefully selected team of seasoned market analysts and traders would also take participants through topics such as:

Comprehensive Earnings Guide for Investing and Trading in 2018 Earnings Season Profitably

“Equity price movement is a function of earnings in the short run and long term,” market reaction to earnings in any market cycles is prolonged by dividend payout, relative to price. It makes a lot of sense to trade in the direction by knowing the companies that will grow their payout in 2018… as long as you identify such stocks in their early stages. Hindsight, as they say, earnings calendar, trend, surprise and quality of numbers are very useful in making profitable investment decision in 2018 and beyond. 

The Secret For Finding Better Trades & Investment Opportunity

Discover how to Trade Smarter, How You Can Stay on the Right Side of the Market Most of the Time, as well as specific, high winning probability, chart patterns Trading Price Direction based on Momentum Flows, The current market cycles, how they are used for trading price direction, in addition to How to set realistic & achievable profit.

How to Pick Investable Stocks: Using working Models/Tactics of Experts and Professionals to improve your Trading Profit

In this presentation you will learn: How the gurus pick stocks, depending on their different investment goals, whether for dividend Income. Or, are you a momentum trader who wants to grow your wealth through the stock market? Even If you’re a complete beginner – What is model, And Why Was It The Top Performing strategy of 2015, 2016 and 2017 so far.

Impact and Implication of NSE New Rules on your Equity Investment in 2018 and Beyond.

The new strategies to trade and invest in the transforming market will be revealed to boost players profit and minimized losses. Also the classes of stocks to focus on, in this new market normal value of 1kobo in 2018. 

This summit is the perfect opportunity to learn from the best industry experts and to get the personal attention in the exclusive Q&A session after presentations! Date Saturday December 9, 2017
To register for the coming summit Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467 or 08111811223.

N.B: At this event you’ll hear real case studies and see examples of exactly how you can use these same techniques. This summit is packed with great content, but the room only has capacity for 100 people and registration is ongoing, so you’ll need to act fast.
If you are looking for a way to make money in the market as a Full-time or Part-time trader or investor, this is your opportunity.

Dream it! Wish it! Do it! Enjoy it! Don’t Miss out

Best regards
Ambrose Omordion
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467