Nigeria’s GDP Records Slower 1.95% 2018Q1 Growth At N16.1tr, Says NBS

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Monday morning published the 2018Q1 report, showing that real GDP rose year-on-year by a less than expected 1.95%, as t was slower than the 2.11% reported in 2017Q4, which was revised from 1.93%.
It was however far better than the -0.91% reported in 2017Q1, indicating an increase of 2.87% points, which according to the NBS was a decline of -0.16% points, when compared to the preceding quarter.
While Non-oil GDP contribution dropped to 90.39% from 92.65% in the prior quarter; oil GDP stood at 9.61%, up from 7.35%.
The services sector contributed 54.3% to real GDP in 2018Q1; followed from afar by industries with 24%, while agriculture accounted for 21.65%.

“Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was -13.40%,” it added
Real GDP for the period stood at N16.106tr, while nominal GDP was N28.464tr, with Agric sector GDP came slower at 3.0% growth, as against 4.23% in Q4 2017 and 3.39% in Q1 2017. Industry GDP was however better at 6.86% than the 4.87% reported in the preceding quarter, as against the 5.83% contraction in Q1 2017. Services sector GDP however contracted by -0.47%, compared to a 0.10% growth in Q4 2017 and the -0.37% in Q1 2017.

The nominal GDP growth “is higher, when compared to the first quarter of 2017 which recorded a nominal GDP aggregate of N26,028,356.03 million thus, presenting a positive year-on-year nominal growth rate of 9.36%. This rate of growth is however lower relative to growth recorded in Q1 2017 by -7.70% points at 17.06% but higher than the proceeding quarter by 2.14% points at 7.22%.
“To give a clearer depiction, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors,” the report added.
While real oil GDP soared 14.77%, up from 11.2% in the preceding quarter and a significant improvement from the 15.6% contraction in 2017Q1; real non-oil GDP growth was slower at 0.76%, down from 1.45% in 2017Q4, or the 0.72% in Q1 2017.
Nigeria’s daily oil production stood at 2.0m barrels per day, the highest up by 0.05mbpd in 2017Q4, even while it is slightly lower than the 2.05mbpd peak attained in Q1 2016.

“Real growth of the oil sector was 14.77% (year-on-year) in Q1 2018. This represents an increase of 30.37% points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector grew by 13.24% in Q1 2018. The Oil sector contributed 9.61% to total real GDP in Q1 2018, up from 8.53% and 7.35% recorded in the Q1 2017 and Q4 2017, respectively,” the report added.
Growth in the non-oil sector, on the other hand, improved at just 0.76% in real terms, higher by 0.04% point when compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2017 and 0.70% point lower than the fourth quarter of 2017. Growth was driven mainly by agriculture (Crop production); Financial institutions and insurance, Manufacturing, Transportation and Storage and Information and Communication.
“In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 90.39% to the nation’s GDP, lower than 91.47% recorded in the first quarter of 2017 and 92.65% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017.”

Under agric sector, fishing grew in real terms by 4.25% in Q1 2018 compared to 4.05% in Q4 2017 and 5.49% in Q1 2017; while livestock contracted in real terms by -1.85% in Q1 2018, as against 0.19% in Q4 2017 and 1.72% in Q1 2017.
Manufacturing was up by 3.39%, a significant increase from the 0.14% in Q4 2017 and 1.36% in Q1 2017; even as oil refining was robust, growing by 7.06% from a -46.24% contraction in Q4 2017 and even the 3.01% growth in Q1 2017.
Cement however climbed by 5.28% in Q1 2018 compared to -1.92% in Q4 2017, or the 1.83% in Q1 2017; just as mining and quarrying, two related sectors grew by 14.85%, improving from 10.70% in 2017Q4 and the -15.40% recorded in Q1 2017.
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas also recorded robust 14.77% growth, compared to 11.20% in 2017Q4, which was revised from 8.38 %; while in 2017Q1, it recorded a contraction of -15.60%.
Construction GDP also contracted in real terms by -1.54%, compared to 4.14% in Q4 2017 & 0.15% in Q1 2017.
Trade also contracted in real terms by -2.57%, compared to 2.07% in 2017Q4 and -3.08% in 2017Q1.

The transportation sector GDP remained robust, as transportation and storage grew by 14.45%, a drop compared to 16.57% in 2017 Q4; and 10.55% in 2017Q1; road transport was up by 15.63%, compared to 19.70% in the prior quarter and 12.35% in 2017Q1. Rail transport and pipelines GDP at 0.58% in Q1 2018 was relatively slow, when compared to 1.04% in 2017Q4 and 2.47% 2017Q1.
Telecommunications & Information Services notched 1.88% from -3.28% in 2017Q4 and 2.89% in 2017Q1; just as Finance and Insurance sector GDP soared by 13.30% in the review period, up from 0.22% in 2017Q4, or the 0.67% in 2017Q1; just as financial institutions jumped 12.58% up, compared to the marginal 2.61% in 2017Q4, or 0.60% in 2017Q1.
The insurance sector was perhaps the most improved, coming from -15.71% in 2017Q4 to 18.07% in the period under review; or even the 1.12% of 2017Q1; just as real estates sank deeper in the mud at -9.40% in 2018Q1; compared to -5.92% in 2017Q4, or -3.10% in 2017Q1.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/05/nigerias-gdp-records-slower-1-95-2018q1-growth-n16-1tr-says-nbs/#more