Market Update vol 13

The Nigerian stock market had a mixed performance last week as the market reversed its bearish trend at the mid-week for bulls to take over. The negative moon in the market changed as smart money and traders accumulated stocks at low prices. This improved confidence across the market is attributable to expectations of the May 29 handover and inauguration of the new president. The composite IndexNSEASI andMarket capitalisation closedhigher at 34,439.52 and N11.63 trillion respectively,representing a 0.15 percent growth.

NSEASI

It is true that general market direction makes up 50 percent of movement in stock prices, meaning that market timing in equities’ trading and investing cannot be overemphasised, since it guides your entry and exit of the market and trades. Market bottoming out at this point is important after it seems to have lost direction due to profit taking. There is need to wait and see the in-coming government’s reform policies, the calibre of ministers and indeed, its economic team that would be put in place to drive the ‘Change’ concept.

Many investors and traders want to be investing and trading in stocks during a bull market when the market is on a confirmed uptrend.  This confirmation usually occurs when a major index follow through on day four or later after its rally attempt. The first two or three days of a rally are normally disregardedbecause the rally has not yet proven it will succeed and follow through with strong volume to indicate the beginning of the bull. Therefore, a follow-through day occurs when at least one of the major indexes makes a big percentage gain in higher volume. The percentage gain should generally be in the area of two percent or more.

The recent continuation pattern of the NSEASI called pennant, signifies a breakout in the up or down direction, suggesting that any position taken now in good stocks will rally with the market especially in the equities that make up the NSE 30 that move with the market.

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However, the market’snegative year to date performance dropped tonegative 0.63 per cent. It was a close tie for the bears and the bull as they sought to controllast week’s activities. Although, the bears maintained grip for three trading days while advancers dominated the remaining two trading days. Generally, market sentiment remainsnegative largely this week as investors remain on the sideline. The index opened and remained in the 34,000 threshold. In the same marginal uptrend, the Market capitalisation added aboutN0.17 billionto close at N11.629billion this week. Equally, sectoral indices closed in green; except for the financial services indices, the duo of NSEBNK andNSEINS (with weekly Lossesof 0.19 per centand 0.14 per centrespectively), while the NSECNSMRGDSIndex led the sectoralgainerswith +0.66 per cent weekly returns.

On the contrary, the market recorded lowerlevel of transactionslast week as volume and value of trades droppedby 28per centand 14per centrespectively, relative to theprevious week’s level. At the close of trading activitiesthis week, 1.624billionshares valued at N14.421billion were exchanged in a lowernumber of deals of 19,570compared with 1.583billionunits valued at N20.150billion,exchanged in 22,791deals in the previous trading week.

The Financial services sector maintainedthe lead in terms trades by volume, propelled by banking stocks -dominating trades in excess of75 per cent of total volume of trades this week.

Market Outlook

In line with our expectations of mixed performance outlook of the Index last week, the ASI shrugged off further downward pressure to close that week with marginal gains.Weexpect the market toremain bumpy this week with great possibilitiesof expandingthe weekly gains and advise that investors should go for quality companies as revealed at the just concluded INVESTDATA workshop.

Thanks! Thanks!! Thanks!!!!!!!

We at Investdata Consulting Limited are saying big thanks to all participants at the just concluded Traders & Investors workshop and the facilitators for making the event a huge success.  Also, we are letting the investing public know that the workshop materials are available in DVD’s as well as hard copies. Have a nice trading week. 

Top Performing Stocks on Earnings Released this Season
Securities	Released Date Q4	5-Days %	Securities	Released Date Q1	3-Days %
Nahco	3/27/2015	40.63	ETI	4/30/2015	11.04
Vitafoam	4/30/2015	36.96	Total Nigeria	5/4/2015	9.76
Leran Africa	3/31/2015	28.57	United Capital	4/14/2015	8.00
Total Nigeria	3/26/2015	25.01	Dangote Cement	4/30/2015	4.83
Berger Paints	3/31/2015	24.75	FBNH	4/24/2015	4.76
Trans-nationwide	3/26/2015	21.70	Beta Glass	4/28/2015	4.53
GSK	4/1/2015	21.51	Berger Paints	4/21/2015	4.39
Fidelity Bank	3/31/2015	20.35	Sterling Bank	4/20/2015	2.27
Dangote Cement	3/26/2015	20.25	UBA	4/14/2015	2.07
Unilever	3/26/2015	19.53	Africa Prudential	4/28/2015	1.79
Livestock Feeds	3/25/2015	16.98	Access Bank	4/17/2015	1.67
Fidson	3/26/2015	15.86	GTBank	4/15/2015	1.66
Zenith Bank	3/5/2015	14.47	Lafarge Africa	4/30/2015	1.08
GTBank	3/5/2015	13.48	Nestle Nigeria	4/30/2015	1.06
Sterling Bank	3/25/2015	8.72	Greif Nigeria	3/6/2015	0
Diamond Bank	3/30/2015	8.37	Transcorp Hotels	4/30/2015	0
Mobil Oil	3/24/2015	8.24	Julius Berger	4/30/2015	0
FcmB	3/23/2015	7.25	Livestock Feeds	4/24/2015	0
CCNN	3/31/2015	7.20	McNichols	4/30/2015	0
Caverton	3/27/2015	6.67	Infinity Trust	4/9/2015	0
UBA	3/26/2015	6.01	CAP	4/23/2015	0
Seplat	3/31/2015	5.53	MRS OIL	4/3/2015	0
Ashaka Cement	3/31/2015	4.95	BOC Gases	5/6/2015	0
CAP	3/30/2015	4.88	Chams	4/21/2015	0
Stanbic IBTC	3/31/2015	4.60	Transcorp	4/29/2015	0
FBNH	4/7/2015	3.15	UACN Property	5/5/2015	0
Nigeria Breweries	2/12/2015	2.60	Cornerstone Ins	4/28/2015	0
Cadbury	3/27/2015	1.96	Mobil Oil	4/29/2015	-0.02
UACN	4/2/2015	1.33	Seplat	4/28/2015	-0.29
Dangote Suagr	4/17/2015	1.11	Nigeria Breweries	4/23/2015	-0.65
Custidian&Allied	3/31/2015	0.25	Fidson	4/27/2015	-0.90
Greif Nigeria	3/4/2015	0	Custidian&Allied	4/27/2015	-0.97
Transcorp Hotels	3/16/2015	0	UACN	4/30/2015	-1.23
Julius Berger	3/24/2015	0	Fidelity Bank	4/27/2015	-1.58
McNichols	3/25/2015	0	GSK	4/30/2015	-1.82
Infinity Trust	3/31/2015	0	Forte Oil	4/16/2015	-2.08
MRS OIL	3/30/2015	0	Ashaka Cement	5/1/2015	-2.26
Beta Glass	4/1/2015	0	FcmB	4/26/2015	-2.37
BOC Gases	3/31/2015	0	Unilever	4/10/2015	-3.21
Chams	3/27/2015	0	Stanbic IBTC	4/16/2015	-3.33
ETI	4/20/2015	0	Diamond Bank	4/13/2015	-3.42
Cornerstone Ins	4/28/2014	0	Leran Africa	5/6/2015	-4.32
Nestle Nigeria	2/25/2015	-1.09	Nahco	4/30/2015	-4.55
Forte Oil	2/19/2015	-2.66	Caverton	4/28/2015	-4.76
Access Bank	3/13/2015	-4.59	Trans-nationwide	4/21/2015	-4.88
Lafarge Africa	3/13/2015	-4.91	Zenith Bank	4/20/2015	-4.96
Africa Prudential	3/10/2015	-8.33	Cadbury	4/28/2015	-5.00
Royal Exchange	4/30/2015	-9.09	CCNN	4/30/2015	-5.09
United Capital	3/12/2015	-9.30	Royal Exchange	5/4/2015	-9.09
UACN Property	4/7/2015	-9.42	Okomu Oil	4/1/2015	-9.65
Transcorp	4/7/2015	-9.43	Dangote Suagr	4/29/2015	-13.84
Okomu Oil	4/1/2015	-9.65	Vitafoam	NA
NPF Micro Finance	4/22/2015	14.65	NPF Micro Finance	4/30/2015	2.27