UPTREND MAY CONTINUE ON NIGERIA’S BOURSE AS MORE COMPANIES PRESENT Q2 NUMBERS
MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 18, 2017
Tuesday’s was an interesting but mixed and volatile trading session at
the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as its composite NSE All-Share Index caved
into pressure initially, sliding down in the morning hours. Thereafter, it rose
just as sharply as it went down before managing to maintain an uptrend and in
the process confirming a breakout of the first resistant level on a high volume
of trade. The moving-average however supported and then rebounded to close the
day higher. It retested the highs and made higher highs on the index and rolled
over by the afternoon.
Market sentiment and expected numbers on Wednesday will determine a
breakout at this level to continue the nine-day rally.
The NSE Consumer Goods index closed higher to continue the recovery
move in the sector and market with improved demand for stocks as revealed by
the volume traded index at 0.79; just as buying position was 100%, with 0%
selling volume of the total for the day.
Investors are looking beyond the inflation figure because most of the
economic data are backward looking or historical, while stock markets are
forward looking as a leading indicator that points to where the economy is
heading. One key data pointing to support the economic recovery is corporate
earnings, which is being eagerly expected by all class of investors and traders
as such numbers give a hint of where the stock is headed and if indeed it worth
holding for the short, medium or long-term, depending on investment horizon and
objective, especially with consumer goods stocks looking attractive at this
point. Also, the current pullbacks in the financial services and petroleum
marketing sectors are creating opportunity for traders and investors to take
advantage and position ahead in companies with history of Q2 interim dividend
payment, many of which are found in both sectors.
Stock markets around the world were mixed with the global interest
rate spreads in the U.S. are narrowing as oil price continued to oscillate on
high demand from China and the weakening U.S. Dollar. Among the winners arising
from the weakness of U.S. Dollar are the Euro and the European stock markets.
Meanwhile, the All-Share Index
gained 135.18 basis points yesterday to close at 33,436.61 after opening at
33,301.43 points, representing a 0.41% growth on huge volume traded that was higher than previous day’s trades. Similarly,
market capitalisation went up by N46.59 billion to close at N11.52 trillion
from an opening value of N11.48 trillion, representing a 0.41% value
appreciation.
Value gained in low, medium and high cap stocks impacted the All-Share
index, to boost year-to-date returns to 24.42%. Also, market capitalisation
over the same period improved by N2.28 trillion, representing a 24.62% gain
above the year’s opening value.
Market breadth for Tuesday was positive as the number of advancers
outpaced decliners in the ratio of 25:19 on a huge volume of trade to continue
the nine-day bull transition, while transaction volume and value were up by
664.59% and 690% respectively at 2.4bn shares worth N21.61bn, from the previous
day’s 322.86m units valued at N2.73bn.
Note that the high amount recorded in the volume and value seen on the
market statistic table which differs from that on the price list was because of
the special resolution performed by UBA shareholders to cancel shares held
under Staff Investment Trust Scheme (SSIT). In order to effect the
cancellation, United Bank for Africa (UBA Plc) took to the equities market a
cross deal of about 2bn units from the SSIT to the bank (<a href="http://investdata.com.ng/2017/07/uba-buys-back-set-cancel-2-08bn-shares-book/#more">READ</a>).
This does not in anyhow affect the bank’s financial position, rather it
enhancing shareholders percentage holdings while boosting the earnings position
in terms of supporting higher Earnings Per Share and dividend payment that will
drive price in the short, medium, or long term.
Transactions in the shares of UBA, CONTINENTAL REINSURANCE, FBNH,
OANDO and SKYE BANK topped the volume chart to close the day’s trade on news of
the extension of the CBN's lifeline for another year and the management's
successful recovery of N60bn of its bad loans in the past one year (<a
href="http://investdata.com.ng/2017/07/skye-bank-recovers-n60bn-bad-loans-cbn-extends-guarantees/">Read</a>).
At the end of the day trading, Honeywell Flour topped the advancers’
log, gaining 8.29% to close at N1.96 each on impressive Q4 numbers laced with
the dividend of 6kobo. This is besides expectations of an even more impressive
Q1 helped by the sustained intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in
the FX market that continues to reflect on numbers from this and other sectors.
It was followed by UBN with a 5.00% gain to close at N5.67 per share, on market
forces and expectation of its Q2 numbers at a time the bank’s repositioning is
likely to better impact on bottom line.
On the flipside, May & Baker led the decliners’ log after dropping
5.02% to close at N2.65 on profit taking activities of investors and traders.
It was followed by AXA Mansard, 4.93% decline to close at N2.12 on market
forces and profit taking.
TODAY’S OUTLOOK
With the market opening this morning, expect the uptrend to continue
as more companies release their Q2 numbers and the earnings reporting season
enters its peak period. (Note: The benchmark index was 0.41% up at 10.30am on
Wednesday). Investors should not panic on the pullbacks if they have taken
position based on strong numbers and future prospects of any stock, but fix
their gaze on the actual numbers and bail out when expectations are not met,
thereby cutting their loss.
Again, we advise that investors allow numbers to guide their decisions
while repositioning for the rest of the year’s trading activities, especially
now that prices of stocks are looking up ahead of the improving economic
fundamentals, if the numbers will support the price reversal or continuation.
It is time to use your technical tools to take decision by knowing the
support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position.
Be reminded for the repeated time that industry potential is very
important when picking a stock, because there are factors that are
sector-specific and would naturally impact positively or negatively on
companies operating within such an industry, especially now that the economy is
recovering. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in this
oscillating market or pullbacks. Sign up
to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.
Meanwhile, we say a very big THANK YOU to all participants that made
the INVESTDATA workshop a huge success, even as stocks recommended during the
workshop have started rallying and activities in the various sectors identified
as those to invest in this second half of 2017 continue to look up and
promising to lead the rest of the year in performance and returns.
<strong>To book for the WORKSHOP VIDEO and SOFT COPIES of
WORKSHOP MATERIALS send YES to 08028164085 and 08111811223</strong>
MR.
OMORDION AMBROSE
CHIEF
RESEARCH OFFICER
INVESTDATA
CONSULTING LIMITED
Phone
08028164085, 08032055467
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