ANXIETY AMONG INVESTORS OVER DELAYED ECONOMIC POLICY STATEMENT BY FG

  

There was mixed sentiments in the market last week as bears dominated activities throughout, except for Friday, when the bulls resurfaced on the strength of highly capitalized stocks that had pulled the market down. The reverse occurred when bargain hunters took advantage of low prices to reposition their portfolios since there is no major crisis to warrant fear.

The gloomy mood was attributed investors' decision to await the policy direction of the new government of President Muhammadu Buhari. The seeming bearish direction of the market in the breakdown formation of a continuation pennant pattern signaled indecision that led to accumulation in underpriced equities. The NSE Composite index was down, trading below its 50-day moving average at 33,664.91 with low volume. During the review period, decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 47 to 27, following which market capitalization closed at N11.49 trillion.

NSE ASI

Reversal signal of the index is imminent, discerning investors should therefore position for the medium and long-term, so that when short term profit opportunity comes up you can quickly cash out. Market fundamentals remain intact for now, as the market longs for more liquidity and policy statement to provide the economic compass.

Market breadth for the week closed in favour of bears as more equities closed negative in four out of five trading days this week even though the NSEASI Composite index were in the green in two trading sessions. Generally, the market recorded lower transaction level, compared to last week's numbers on low investors' appetite for equities also pointing to the end of the bear market. When volume of trades in a bearish market is fading away it indicates stability and gradual recovery of the market or index, because market tops always coincide with signs of weakness in the major indices. This weakness is defined by days of heavy selling. When the market index closes a day lower when the volume for that index increases over the previous day, the market is said to be under ‘distribution’.

Many of these distributions (four or five days) within a short period, say in a few weeks, for example, is cause for concern.

Often, the leading stocks in the market will show signs of topping at the same time that the market is showing signs of distribution.

The NSE Composite Index has held strong at the 34,000 psychological line for thelast 41 trading sessions to breakdown to the 33,000 with low volume, as high cap stocks suffer price drops.  In the same declining trend, the Market capitalisation lost about N0.22 billion to close at N11.49 billion.  

The sectoral indices closed in different directions as NSECNSMRGDS NSEINDUSTRY, NSEOILGAS, and NSELOTUSII were in green while others closed red, led by NSEOILGAS with 4.60 percent negative returns for the week.

Transaction level declined relative to the numbers recorded in the previous trading week. The duo of volume and value of trades dropped 31 percent and 23 percent respectively. At the close of trading activities last week, only 1.22billion shares valued at N16.96 billion were exchanged in a higher number of deals of 19,445, compared with 1.78 billion shares valued at N22.07 billion exchanged in 17,018 deals recorded in the previous trading week.

During the week, there were adjustments in the share prices of NPF Microfinance, Julius Berger and Chemical &  Allied Products for the dividend declared. Also, additional shares of were listed by the exchange in favour of Oando and Pharmdeko, after their recent successful right issues.

Market Outlook for the week

We expect the current  market mood  to remain as  direction is  dicey  at this moment as traders and investors await policy statement and economic agenda of this government to shape the market, going forward, especially in the second half of the year. As the market expects the monetary and fiscal authorities to work together to drive the economy.  We advice traders and investors to tread cautiously and not exit the market out of panic, but trade stocks with high margin of safety.

 STOCKS TO WATCH

Zenith Bank, Flourmills, Access Bank, FBN Holdings, Transcorp, Dangote Cement and United Capital

CORPORATE ACTIONS & RELEVANT DATES  SO FAR IN 2015
COMPANY	PERIOD	DIV	BONUS		REL.	CLOSURE	PAYMENT	AGM/EGM	AGM VENUE	TIME
	ENDED	DECLD	DECLD	REASON	DATE	DATE	DATE	DATE
Nigerian Breweries	Dec.31, 2014	N3.50		Final	2/13/2015	3/5/2015	5/14/2015	5/13/2015	LATER
Forte Oil	Dec.31, 2014	N2.50	1;5	Final	2/19/2015	4/1/2015	4/22/2015	4/15/2015	ECWA CONF HALL  Lekki Ajah	10;00
Nestle Nigeria Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N17.50		Final	2/25/2015	4/27/2015	5/12/2015	5/11/2015	LATER
Neimeth International Pharm	Dec.31, 2014	nil	nil	Final	2/18/2015	3/18/2015	nil	3/24/2015	LATER
Greif Nigeria Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N0.60	nil	Final	3/4/2015	3/25/2015	5/5/2015	4/28/2015	LATER
GTBank Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N1.50		Final	3/5/2015	3/17/2015	3/31/2015	3/31/2015	LATER
Zenith Bank	Dec.31, 2014	N1.75		Final	3/5/2015	3/16/2015	3/27/2015	3/26/2015	Civic Centre V/I	10;00
Africa Prudential Registrar	Dec.31, 2014	N0.35		Final	3/9/2015	3/18/2015	4/10/2015	4/8/2015	LATER
United Capital Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N0.20	nil	Final	3/12/2015	3/23/2015	4/20/2015	4/16/2015	LATER
Lafarge Africa Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N3.60		Final	3/13/2015	4/27/2015	5/25/2015	5/22/2015	LATER
Access Bank	Dec.31, 2014	N0.35		Final	3/13/2015	4/24/2015	5/7/2015	5/7/2015	Lagoon Resturant VI	10;00
Transcorp Hotels	Dec.31, 2014	N0.37		Final	3/17/2015	3/30/2015	4/17/2015	4/15/2015	Transcorp Hotel Abuja
PZ Cussons	Feb. 28,2015	N0.20		Interim	3/20/2015	3/30/2015	4/7/2015	nil
Fcmb Holdings plc	Dec.31, 2014	N0.25		Final	3/23/2015	3/30/2015	4/24/2015	4/23/2015	Muson Centre, Onikan Lagos.
Livestock Feeds	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10		Final	3/25/2015	5/28/2015	6/18/2015	6/17/2015	Golden Tulip, Amuwo Odofin, Lagos	10;00
Mobil Oil	Dec.31, 2014	N6.60		Final	3/25/2015	4/29/2015	5/28/2015	6/4/2015	Shell Hall, Muson Center, Lagos.
Julius Berger Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N2.70	nil	Final	3/26/2015	6/1/2015	6/18/2015	6/17/2015	Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre, Abuja	11;00
Sterling Bank	Dec.31, 2014	N0.06		Final	3/25/2015	4/13/2015	4/30/2015	4/30/2015	Eko Hotel & Suites, VI, Lagos.	10;00
McNichols Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N0.04	1;10	Final	3/26/2015	7/17/2015	7/27/2015	7/23/2015	Excellence Hotel, Ogba Ikeja, Lagos.	10;00
Trans-Nationwide	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10		Final	3/26/2015	7/13/2015	8/7/2015	7/23/2015	Airport Hotel, Obafemi Awolowo Way Ikeja,
UBA	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10		Final	3/26/2015	4/7/2015	4/27/2015	4/24/2015	Lagos Oriental Hotel, 3 Lekki Road,
Dongote Cement	Dec.31, 2014	N6.00		Final	3/26/2015	4/20/2015	4/30/2015	4/29/2015	Civic Centre, VI Lagos.
Unilever plc	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10		Final	3/26/2015	4/13/2015	5/15/2015	5/12/2015	City Hall, Catholic Mission Street, Lagos.
Total Nigeria	Dec.31, 2014	N9.00		Final	3/25/2015	4/20/2015	6/12/2015	6/10/2015	Later
Fidson Healthcare	Dec.31, 2014	N0.15		Final	3/27/2015	Later	Later	Later	Later
Nacho	Dec.31, 2014	N0.20	1;10	Final	3/27/2015	5/18/2015	6/11/2015	6/11/2015	Abuja
Cadbury	Dec.31, 2014	N0.65		Final	3/27/2015	5/11/2015	6/11/2015	6/10/2015	Civic Centre, Lagos.
Caverton Offshore	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10		Final	3/27/2015	Later	Later	Later	Later
Diamond Bank	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10		Final	3/30/2015	4/16/2015	5/4/2015	Later	Later
Mrs Oil	Dec.31, 2014	N0.88		Final	3/30/2015	7/13/2015	8/6/2015	8/5/2015	Later
CAP	Dec.31, 2014	N0.85		Final	3/30/2015	6/1/2015	6/19/2015	6/18/2015	Golden Tulip, Festac
Custodian & Allied Insurance	Dec.31, 2014	N0.12		Final	3/29/2015	4/13/2015	5/14/2015	5/13/2015	Civic Centre, Lagos.
CCNN	Dec.31, 2014	N0.35		Final	3/30/2015	7/20/2015	8/18/2015	8/13/2015	Later
AshakaCem	Dec.31, 2014	N0.45		Final	3/31/2015	4/20/2015	5/6/2015	5/5/2015	Transcorp Hotel Abuja
GSK	Dec.31, 2014	N0.75	1;4	Final	3/29/2015	5/14/2015	6/12/2015	6/11/2015	Later
Fidelity Bank	Dec.31, 2014	N0.18		Final	3/30/2015	4/20/2015	5/7/2015	5/7/2015	Civic Centre, Lagos.
Stanbic IBTC	Dec.31, 2014	N0.15		Final	3/31/2015	4/14/2015	Later	Later	Later
Boc Gases	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10		Final	4/1/2015	5/15/2015	6/15/2015	6/11/2015	Later
Berger Paints	Dec.31, 2014	N0.75		Final	3/31/2015	6/15/2015	7/23/2015	7/21/2015	Later
Infinity Trust Mortgage Bk	Dec.31, 2014	N0.03		Final	3/31/2015	4/17/2015	5/15/2015	5/14/2015	Barcelona Hotel Abuja
Learn Africa Plc	Dec.31, 2014	N0.12		Final	3/31/2015	5/11/2015	6/5/2015	6/4/2015	Later
Okomu Oil	Dec.31, 2014	N0.25		Final	3/31/2015	5/18/2015	6/29/2015	6/24/2015	Later
Beta Glass	Dec.31, 2014	N0.62		Final	3/31/2015	6/15/2015	7/10/2015	7/9/2015	Mainland Hotel Oyingbo
UACN	Dec.31, 2014	N1.75		Final	3/31/2015	7/6/2015	7/30/2015	7/29/2015	Golden Tulip Hotel Festac
FBNH	Dec.31, 2014	N0.10	1;10	Final	4/7/2015	5/4/2015	5/25/2015	Later	Later
Transcorp	Dec.31, 2014	N0.06		Final	4/7/2015	4/21/2015	5/11/2015	5/8/2015	Transcorp Hotel Abuja
UACN property	Dec.31, 2014	N0.50		Final	4/7/2015	8/31/2015	9/23/2015	9/22/2015	Golden Tulip Hotel Festac
Chams	Dec.31, 2014	N0.02		Final	3/31/2015	4/20/2015	5/11/2015	4/29/2015	Later
Seplat	Dec.31, 2014	N18.00		Final	4/16/2015	5/22/2015	6/10/2015	6/2/2015	Civil Centre V/I
May & Baker	Dec.31, 2014	N0.05		Final	4/15/2015	4/20/2015	6/8/2015	5/28/2015	Muson Centre, Onikan Lagos.
Dangote Sugar	Dec.31, 2014	N0.40		Final	4/17/2015	4/28/2015	5/18/2015	5/15/2015	Eko Hotel & Suites, VI, Lagos.
ETI	Dec.31, 2014	nil	1;15	Final	4/21/2015	Later
Cornstorne Insurance	Dec.31, 2014	N0.02		Final	4/28/2015	7/6/2015	Later	Later
Royal Exchnage	Dec.31, 2014	N0.02		Final	4/30/2015	Later
E-Tranzact	Dec.31, 2014	N0.05		Final	4/30/2015	6/22/2015	8/6/2015	Later
Vitafoam	Sept.30,2014	N0.30	1;5	Final	4/30/2015	5/19/2015	6/9/2015	Later	Later
Continetal Reinsurance	Dec.31, 2014	N0.11		Final	5/14/2015	7/20/2015	7/31/2015	7/30/2015
NPF Micro finance	Dec.31, 2014	N0.15		Final	5/22/2015	6/1/2015	7/24/2015	7/23/2015
Smart Products	Dec.31, 2014	N0.25		Final	5/4/2015	7/3/2015	8/11/2015	7/30/2015
National Salt	Dec.31, 2014	N0.50		Final	5/15/2015	5/25/2015	6/12/2015	6/10/2015
Skye Bank	Dec.31, 2014		1;20	Final	5/6/2015	5/21/2015	N/A	6/8/2015
International Brew	Mar.31,2015	N0.25		Final	6/4/2015	7/20/2015	8/11/2015	8/10/2015