2018: OPTIMISM, OPPORTUNITIES, UNCERTAINTIES, MIXED SIGNALS FOR TRADERS, INVESTORS
2017 STOCK MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK FOR 2018
The chart above
highlights the monthly changes in the NSE ASI for 2017, with up months
represented by green and down periods, red. January and February were down
while March to July were up markets, while there were corrections in August and
September before the rebound in October, November and December on highly
volatile months and days to close the year in green.
The year 2017 was
remarkable for bull ascendency as predicted by Investdata during its annual
Traders and Investors Summit tagged INVEST 2017, which held on December 3,
2016, after putting into consideration the preceding three straight years of
down market induced by multiples of factors. These included the crisis of
market confidence, the fact that Nigeria was deep into economic recession, even
as politicians were busy passing the bulk instead of fashioning a blue-print to
give the economy some form of direction, which was made worse by the delay in
appointing economic managers. There was also the factor of low commodity prices
in the international market which affected government revenue.
The nation’s stock
market at the beginning of the year 2017 was flat but bottomed out in April on
the strength of better-than-expected 2016 full-year and 2017 Q1 earnings
reports. The effect of this was enhanced by a review of the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) Foreign Exchange policy, leading to the introduction of Investors
& Exporters window that boosted FX liquidity, resulting in a relatively
stable exchange rate regime which impacted positively on the nation’s manufacturing
sector and economic activities.
The ensuing rally was
supported by low valuation, rising crude oil prices that helped to boost external
reserves and government revenue at a time the Muhammadu Buhari administration
unveiled its Economic Recovery & Growth Plan (ERGP). This was meant principally
to structure the government’s economic diversification efforts, which
highlighted the administration’s focus on infrastructure development and
agriculture to ensure self-sufficiency in food production and create employment
for the country’s teeming youth population, while further driving recovery and
growth.
The positive
economic data and companies’ numbers were sustained during the year, reflecting
on the prevailing economic expansion that strengthened the market and economic
fundamentals that affected domestic and international investor confidence which
boosted demand for equities.
The impact of the
improving liquidity in the fx market continued as a result of the CBN’s sustained
intervention, helped by the Executive Order on improving the Ease of doing
business signed by the then Acting President Yemi Osinbajo.
Despite the
tightened monetary policy of the CBN during the year, inflation figures
continued a slow decline, with expansionary manufacturing sector as shown by
the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which remained above 50 points to signal
increasing activities in the sector, regardless of the unclear implementation style
of the budget and execution of it ERPG agenda by government.
Meanwhile, it was an
activity packed year for regulators of the market as the improved confidence
triggered a flurry of primary market activities as over 15 companies approached
the market with right issues that were successful, just as three companies had
their shares listed on the bourse by way of introduction.
Nigeria’s market
also witnessed many regulatory actions against market infractions, the most
popular among which was the suspension of Oando Plc’s shares on the Nigerian
Stock Exchange (NSE) and the appointment of forensic auditors led by Akintola
William Deloitte; as well as Partnership investment Company over unauthorized
sale of clients’ shares, in a bid to boost market confidence beyond 2017.
The development and
growth of the Nigerian capital market during the year were driven mainly by
technology to promote transparency that kept both domestic and international
investors’ as trading and investing were made simple with the use of online
trading platforms. This allows investors trade from the comfort of their homes
and offices, with access to real-time market information that enables them take
quick investment decisions as more market operators created online portal for
their clients to trade directly on their own. This helped to significantly
increase the number of traders in the market as more people sought to create more
streams of income, especially those seeking to be financially independent
through the stock trading and investing.
Helped by interplay
of all these factors, Nigeria’s NSE All Share Index, at the end of trading for
the year on Friday, December 29, 2017, gained 11,368.57 points to recover more
than two years of losses, closing at 38,243.19, after opening at 26,874.62
basis points, representing 42.30% growth. The market however tasted a peak of
39,656.53 and low of 24,547.37 within the year under consideration.
The bullish range
and galloping prices were in line of expectations to rank the nation stock
market among the best five performing exchange in the world and Africa as it
created wealth for players in the year under consideration, despite the
negative start on the first trading day and month of the year under review, characterized
by the January effect scenario and fear of unimpressive 2016 full-year
earnings, which however surprised all. This changed market sentiments, giving
insight into the 2017 rally, which supported the better than expected quarterly
earnings reports and positive macroeconomic indices, thereby attracting more
investors and traders to the market as reflected in the transaction volume and
value, as many low, medium and high cap stocks recorded 52-week and new highs.
A review of the
market’s sectoral indices indicated that only the NSE AseM of the 11 indexes
closed the year down, shedding 8.60%, while others closed the year up.
The NSE Banking topped
the sectorial indexes’ performance chart chalking all of 73.32% in 2017;
followed by the NSE Pension index which reflected the power of consistent
dividend paying stocks on equity price performance.
As stipulated by the
National Pension Commission (Pencom), investment of the nation’s huge pension assets
in the stock market must be in companies that had consistently paid dividend
for five years and most of the stocks that meet this condition are mostly blue
chips of which players in the banking sector account for more than 40%. Next
was NSE Premium index that has two banking and one industrial goods stocks.
Others followed as revealed by the chart above.
Price appreciation
of equities in 2017 was attributed to other factors including growth in the
global economy, relatively stable currencies in developed economics and market
resulting from crude oil price recovery at the beginning of the year due to
supply cut, the flood in the U.S. There was also the unrest in the Middle East which
influenced oil production and price in the year under review. CBN intervention in the fx market impacted
the economy positively, despite the delayed budget passage by the National
Assembly, the government’s poor implementation style, tight monetary policy,
high interest rate and high unemployment rate. Available data shows that market
liquidity was boosted by the dominant foreign and institutional players. It is
a long established norm that markets dependent on foreign funds tends to move
in the direction dictated by such fund owners as they move in and out of the
market at any given time. Knowing the
danger of foreign investor dominance in any stock market, local investors and
traders should plan their trades for any eventuality in 2018.
Where Stocks Are Headed
We would like to
share our top trading and investment themes in 2018 and where market sectors, stocks,
domestic and global economies are headed in the first half of 2018 and beyond
as discussed during Investdata’s December 9, 2017 INVEST 2018 SUMMIT where experts
challenged investors to stay with value enhancing stocks to generate good
returns, while at the same time protecting their capital.
This they agreed,
has become necessary, considering the opportunities presented by the 2018
Appropriation Bill submitted to the National Assembly by President Muhammadu
Buhari, taking note of uncertainties surrounding the period, being a
pre-election year. Also fifteen trade-able stocks with high upside potential
were recommended at the summit, meaning if you are ready to make money in 2018
trading or investing, get the home study pack.
The possibility of
continued volatility and uptrend in the first three months of 2018 is high.
Best Performing Stocks in 2017
|
||||
SECURITIES
|
SECTOR
|
OPEN
|
CLOSE
|
% Change
|
DANGOTE SUGAR
|
Consumer Goods
|
6.11
|
20.00
|
227.33
|
INT'L BREWERIES
|
Consumer Goods
|
18.50
|
54.50
|
194.59
|
FIDELITY
|
Financial
|
0.84
|
2.46
|
192.86
|
FIDSON HEALTHCARE
|
Healthcare
|
1.28
|
3.70
|
189.06
|
DANGOTE FLOUR MILLS
|
Consumer Goods
|
4.25
|
12.15
|
185.88
|
STANBIC IBTC HOLDINGS
|
Financial
|
15.00
|
41.50
|
176.67
|
MAY & BAKER
|
Healthcare
|
0.94
|
2.60
|
176.60
|
FBNHOLDINGS
|
Financial
|
3.35
|
8.80
|
162.69
|
C&I LEASING
|
Services
|
0.50
|
1.29
|
158.00
|
AIRLINE SERVICES AND LOGISTICS
|
Services
|
2.50
|
5.95
|
138.00
|
UBA
|
Financial
|
4.50
|
10.30
|
128.89
|
NASCON ALLIED INDUSTRIES PLC
|
Consumer Goods
|
8.50
|
18.50
|
117.65
|
NESTLE NIGERIA
|
Consumer Goods
|
810.00
|
1555.99
|
92.10
|
CEMENT CO. OF NORTHERN NIG.
|
Industrial Goods
|
5.00
|
9.50
|
90.00
|
ACCESS
|
Financial
|
5.87
|
10.45
|
78.02
|
ZENITH INT'L PLC
|
Financial
|
14.75
|
25.46
|
72.61
|
PRESCO
|
Agribusiness
|
40.10
|
68.50
|
70.82
|
DIAMOND
|
Financial
|
0.88
|
1.50
|
70.45
|
TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION
|
Conglomerates
|
0.87
|
1.48
|
70.11
|
OKOMU OIL PALM
|
Agribusiness
|
40.17
|
67.69
|
68.51
|
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INC
|
Financial
|
10.28
|
17.00
|
65.37
|
GUARANTY
|
Financial
|
24.70
|
40.75
|
64.98
|
SEPLAT
|
Oil/Gas
|
379.99
|
626.22
|
64.80
|
HONEYWELL FLOUR
|
Consumer Goods
|
1.30
|
2.10
|
61.54
|
BETA GLASS
|
Industrial Goods
|
32.00
|
51.31
|
60.34
|
NEM INSURANCE
|
Insurance
|
1.05
|
1.66
|
58.10
|
FLOUR MILLS
|
Consumer Goods
|
18.49
|
29.00
|
56.84
|
CADBURY NIGERIA
|
Consumer Goods
|
10.29
|
15.67
|
52.28
|
In the year under review,
65 stocks recorded gains, 12 of which share prices rose by more than 100%,
compared to just three equities that recorded triple-digit price appreciation
in 2016. Also, more than 30 stocks
recorded two-digit capital growth for the same period to create value for
investors. The top five gainers were: Dangote Sugar Refinery’s 227.33%;
International Brewery had 194.59%; while Fidelity Bank, Fidson Healthcare and
Dangote Flour recorded capital growth of 192.86%, 189.06% and 185.88% respectively.
A further breakdown
showed that the consumer Goods and banking stocks dominated the best
performance table for the year 2017, a situation that may likely continue in
the New Year with other stocks that had performed well within the period, on
the strength of improving companies,
market and economy fundamentals
Worst Performing Stocks
in 2017
|
||||
SECURITIES
|
SECTOR
|
OPEN
|
CLOSE
|
% Change
|
FORTE OIL PLC
|
Oil/Gas
|
84.43
|
43.48
|
-48.50
|
UNIVERSITY PRESS
|
Services
|
4.24
|
2.28
|
-46.23
|
MRS OIL NIGERIA
|
Oil/Gas
|
43.24
|
27.46
|
-36.49
|
MOBIL OIL NIG.
|
Oil/Gas
|
279.00
|
194.60
|
-30.25
|
JULIUS BERGER
|
Construction
|
38.58
|
28.00
|
-27.42
|
CONOIL
|
Oil/Gas
|
37.48
|
28.00
|
-25.29
|
TOTAL NIGERIA
|
Oil/Gas
|
299.00
|
229.95
|
-23.09
|
TRANS-NATIONWIDE
|
Services
|
1.00
|
0.78
|
-22.00
|
7-UP BOTTLING
|
Consumer Goods
|
129.00
|
101.97
|
-20.95
|
NIGERIA ENAMELWARE
|
Industrial Goods
|
29.33
|
23.23
|
-20.80
|
On the flip side,
more than 40 stocks were on the year’s laggards’ table, dominated by petroleum
stocks. The top five are: Forte Oil, which lost 48.5% of its opening price for
the year; University Press, 46.23%; while MRS Oil, Mobil Oil and Julius Berger
were down by 36.49%, 30.25% and 27.42% respectively.
The year ended with
stocks on the Nigeria bourse still relatively undervalued on the strength of
strong numbers, even as data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed
that Nigeria’s economy grew by 1.4% in Q3 2017 from 0.72% (revised) in the
preceding quarter, amidst expectations that Q4 could even be better. It is
expected that the CBN in the New Year would review its monetary policy stance
as part of greater collaboration in 2018 to boost economic activity and export.
The return of foreign portfolio investors due to the nation’s rising reserves
level as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended its
supply cut to 2018, as government revenue improves, helping implementation of the
year’s budget, which we hope would be enacted in good time.
In the New Year,
investors should keep their gaze on stocks in industries such as: Consumer goods,
industrial goods, hospitality, energy, agriculture, financial and services that
have recorded earnings uptrend in the last financial year and still have strong
earnings power that could further drive their prices.
The global economy
is likely to continue its expansion through 2018 but the pace of growth is
likely to moderate on the downside amidst risks to current pace for different
reasons across US, Europe and Middle east, as Britain exit from Eurozone and
policy change in US continue.
Investors should be
optimistic in the New Year, but be ready to navigate between the opportunities
and uncertainties in 2018 as our detailed outlook for 2018 that will be publish
next week and the outcome of the INVEST 2018 TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT
revealed a mixed signal for the year.
Dream it! Wish it! Do it! Enjoy it! Don’t Miss
out
Best regards
Ambrose
Omordion
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
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