MARKET UPDATE FOR OCTOBER 9, 2017



VOLATILITY MAY PERSIST, AS INVESTORS, SPECULATORS POSITION FOR Q3 EARNINGS SEASON
·         TRADERS RETURN AHEAD OF SEPTEMBER INFLATION, Q3 GDP DATA

Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) started out the week Monday on a positive note to consolidate the four trading session of up market that supports another round of rally despite the day’s mixed technicals as stocks make new 2017 highs on high volume with investors and traders positioning for Q3 numbers.

The NSE’s benchmark index had an interesting but volatile Monday. It began slightly down in the early hours of the trading session, but had a really strong rally from mid-morning to midday and by the afternoon where it hit intraday high of 36,888.73 and low of 36,320.29 points. This was the support level for the day after breaking the resistant level of 36,640.34 to close high for the day.
The market uptrend momentum continued on the strength of price appreciation in the medium and high cap stocks as earnings session gradually kicks off with the high expectation, especially given that many companies have the prospect of sustaining their positive earnings trend that would likely influence their prices, judging by the insight of dividend possibility as revealed by the expected numbers. The positive market breadth and high buying pressure as shown by the volume index for the day at 1.06, while buying position was at 90% and 10% selling volume of the day’s transaction. This trend was a continuation of previous day’s up market, but on below average market traded volume which support uptrend as sentiments remain positive when trading session opens this morning.

With the mature markets of the world facing one challenge or the other, especially the U.S market that is pulling back on the recent labour data that revealed job loss in September that was beyond expectation, with geopolitical uncertainties that had triggered sell-offs and cautious trading. This is expected to have positive impact on emerging markets of which Nigeria is one. The nation’s exit from recession is a plus as market and economic fundamentals are looking up to drive assets value in this early expansion stage of the economy as macro-economic indices still remain positive ahead of Q3 corporate earnings season, September inflation figure and Q3 GDP numbers.
Meanwhile, the All-Share index gained a robust 511.00 basis points to close at 36,831.93 from an opening figure of 36,320.93 which represented a 1.41% growth, just as market capitalisation for the day went up by N175.9bn to close at N12.68tr, from the previous session’s N12. 5tr, also representing a 1.41% value gained in investors’ portfolios.

The upturn in the share prices of medium and high cap stocks like: Dangote Cement, Total, Zenith Bank, NB, Nestle, FBNH, Guaranty Trust Bank, Dangote Flour, National Salt and Flour Mills impacted positively on the ASI’s year-to-date return, which stood at 37.05%. This is just as market capitalisation grew by N3.48tr within the same period, representing a 37.11% rise above the year’s opening value.
Market breadth for the day remained positive with the number of advancers outweighing decliners in the ratio of 27:21 on a low volume traded that was lower than previous day’s level to continue the bull transition.  

Market activities for the day, in terms of volume and value, were down by 28.55% and 19.96% respectively to 262.17m shares worth N3bn, from previous day’s 366.92m units valued at N3.74bn.
Transactions in the shares of Diamond, Access and Zenith banks, as well as FBNH and Transcorp topped the volume chart.
At the close of trading on Monday, May & Baker topped the advancers’ table, chalking 7.63% to close at N2.82 per share on market forces and Q3 expectations, followed by International Breweries, 5.00% notch at N39.90 per share on expectation of its Q2 numbers.
On the flipside, AG Leventis dropped 4.84% to close at N0.62 on market forces, followed by Diamond Bank that lost 4.55% to close at N1.05 on profit taking.   

TODAY’S OUTLOOK
As the market opens this morning, expect volatility to persist owing to positioning and earnings season speculation that kicked off with traders returning to play the season ahead of  September inflation  and Q3 GDP figure in the amidst of year-end seasonality.  
One thing that is clear in the current market situation is that smart investors are accumulating and enhancing their positions in selected stocks.
Again, we advise that investors allow numbers to guide their decisions while repositioning for the rest of the year trading activities, especially now that prices of stocks are looking down amidst improving economic and market fundamentals. 

It is time to use your technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position
Investing in the stock market is in phases. You must know this in order to manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in this oscillating market or pullbacks sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.
Get your home study pack today and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy. By investing and trading knowledgeable in this recovery market.

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Ambrose Omordion
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467

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