MARKET UPDATE FOR THE WEEK ENDED MAY 12 AND OUTLOOK FOR MAY 15-20

NIGERIAN STOCKS PULLBACK ON PROFIT BOOKING AFTER 11- DAY RALLY

Nigeria’s equity market indices for the second week of May closed higher to continue the bull transition that slowed down on Friday, as many traders took profit from the recent 11-day rally.  This signals the beginning of market correction, especially with the outrageous volume traded on Friday, which further shows that the party is over for now until a time when external and internal market forces pool resources to drive prices again.

Last Thursday’s passage of the 2017 Appropriation Bill by the National Assembly, which many had expected to have immediate positive influence on the market did not,even amidst the thinking that this had been factored into the scenario, while stakeholders hope to see the real impact when full implementation kicks off after the Presidential assent to the bill. Only then will disbursement of funds, especially those for various capital projects to the contractors and others to boost business activities and productivity.  

The expected stock market pullback is normal in any environment, especially after a rally like we have just experienced,creating room for repositioning again, which supports the old mantra of the stock market: "Buy low and sell high.”

The good thing in the market today is that companies and market fundamentals are improving at a time the nation’s economy is recovering from recession and many listed equities are still selling at a discount of their intrinsic value.

The rekindled confidence of Investorsand improving liquidity in the FX market are factors in the market that suggest this correction may not take too long before a rebound, meaning that investors in any position that is now on the down trend should wait.

Meanwhile, the composite NSE All-Share Index for the week gained 1,956.83 points to close at the week at 28,192.46 points, from an opening figure of 26.235.63 points, representing a 7.46% growth on a very high volume of trade. The growth was significant, when considered against previous week’s level to continue the two-week of bull market. The volume index for the period was 2.12 as buying position was 75%, while selling was 25%.  Similarly, market capitalisation for the period closed higher at N9.75tr, from an opening value of N9.07tr, representing a 7.46% appreciation in investor’s portfolio.

Advancers table for the period wasa mix of low, medium and high cap stocks that top the log as investors and traders repositioned their portfolio along the line of value and sectors, with better economic data to support the recoverybeing expected.

Price rally during the week returned the NSEASI's year-to-date to a positive position of 4.90%, just as market capitalisation grew YTD by N517.21bn, representing 5.35% gain from the year’s opening value.

Market breadth for the week was still positive and strong but widened as the number of advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 57:13 on a big high volume of trades that were bullish, due for increase in demand for stocks as smart money markup price to dump on late buyers. With the recovery in the economy and expected improved data signaling good time for the stock market if numbers emanating from companies continue to look up in subsequent quarters.

International stock markets were mixed over the past week, despite the seeming rebound of oil prices amidst cautious trading by investors, blamed on the lackluster earnings reports from high cap companies and the weak US Dollar which triggered commodity trading during the week, touching oil prices.

Japan’s Nikkei, Germany‘s DAX and Britain’s FTSE 100 were up for the week, while US market indexes were lower in a relatively quiet period of trading, despite the positive consumer confidence figure in May that beat expectations to a robust 97.7, as retail sale growth fell short of market expectations. 

In Europe, the Eurozone economy posted faster growth rates than that of the U.S during the first quarter at a 0.5% quarterly rate as against the 1.8% annualized rate for 2017. In Asia, Japan is expected to post its fifth straight quarter of growth as consumer spending and offshore growth continue to improve according to a Reuter’s poll of economists.

Back home, the All share index opened the week on a positive note, gaining 0.70%, which was sustained on Tuesday,  Wednesday  and Thursday  with 1.28%, 2.955 and 3.18% respectively to pullback on the last  trading session of the week with 0.81% loss, which resulting in the cumulative gain of  7.46% for the week on strong demand supported by renewed investors’ confidence  and improving liquidity in the fx market that is likely to attract foreign inflow.

The composite All-Share index and all sectoral indices for the period closed higher, except for NSE AseM that was flat.

The week’s activities, measured by aggregate volume and value were significantly up by 183.47% and 175.29% respectively to 3.25bn shares from 1.15bn units in the preceding week. Value for the period stood at N28.74bn from N10.44 billion last week.

During the week, the share prices of AIICO Insurane, Medview Airlines, Nestle Nigeria and FBN Holdings were adjusted for dividend recommended by their directors. Smart Product, Tourist Company and FTN Cocoa Processor released their quarterly earnings reports. 

May & Baker  and ETI  led the advancers’ log for last week, gaining  31.90% and 22.50% respectively to close at N1.28 and N9.80, driven by low price attraction and market forces, while the flip side was topped by Jaiz Bank and Seplat, which suffered 9.09% and 5.88% slide to close at N1.00 and N400.00 each respectively.

Market Outlook                   

The market this week is likely to be mixed as short term profit taking continues in the absence of external forces to push price in form of earnings this period, exceptwhere there is foreign inflow, with inflation figures scheduled for release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) before the market opens this morning, which is likely to show a Month-on-Monthdrop in rate after months of slowdown in growth. With Friday’s trading volume index was 3.37 on 0 buying position,while selling volume was 100%, investors should hold cash to watch the trend this week,

Again, the time to combine data and chart pattern for your trading decisions is now, to enable you know the support and the resistance levels.

Train yourself and study to know the new approach to adopt at this point and going forward, get your comprehensive short term trading pack. 

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