DANGOTE CEMENT: AFRO-CENTRIC INVESTMENT DRIVE PUSHES PERFORMANCE, SUPPORT DIVIDEND
The recurrent expansion of Dangote Cement's manufacturing capacity
in its plants based in Nigeria and across Africa to meet the increasing demand
for its products continues to reflect in its top and bottom lines. This is
despite the high cost associated with investment in capacity building to
sustain future growth by increasing market share beyond the shores of Nigeria.
The company's track
record of strong earnings and share price has helped itto outperform the wholemarket
in terms of relative price stability and as the most capitalised equity on the
floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.
Its current share price can be
considered cheap and attractive at13.99 times of earnings as at the released
date of the 2015 full year result. On the strength of its recent earnings
report, DCP's full year earnings per share stands at N10.86 per share,
representing a 16 percent improvement over the 2014 earnings.
Our updates
on Dangote Cement's 2015 interim results were pointers to the actual full year
numbers made available to the investing community on Tuesday, March 1, 2016,
earlier than the release date of its 2014 figures.
As
summarized in the table and chart below, Dangote Cement delivered a solid
underlying full year result, with net income increasing by 25.56 percent to
N491.73 billion. The year on year change in earnings per share was commensurate
with net earnings and positive operating cash flow that indicates strong
earnings power of the company.
The company’s
numbers revealed improved performances, compared to the previous year, as the
top and bottom line were up, despite the harsh business environmentas seen in
the high financing and operating cost which increased by 64.8 per cent and 32.2
percent respectively to N54.35 billion and
N86.05 billion.
Its
capacity expansion and operations outside Nigeria has started impacting on profitability, as shown
in the numbers posted. Revenue stands tall over the corresponding period by
25.56 per cent from N391.64 billion in 2014 to N491.71 billion. Profit after tax
growth for the period was slower at 16percent to N181.32 billion, from N159.50
billion in 2014.
Its
investment in capacity building and high cost of operation did not hamper its
profit for the period as reduction in tax supported its earnings power. Net
assets soared to N644.72 billion from N591.89 billion in 2014 representing a 9
percent growth. Its earnings per share for the period grew to N10.86 from N9.36
in 2014. The EPS for the full year is a replica of price at 13.99x, which we
consider more attractive, especially considering the fact that it is lower than
the 16.35x recorded in the corresponding periond of last year. The trailing
book value for the period stood at N37.84 from N34.74 in 2014. Profit margin of
36.87 percent is an indication that management's cost cutting effort is
yielding positive results as seen in its profitability level.
DANGOTE CEMENT PLC
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2015 AUDITED REPORT
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COY
|
2014
|
2015
|
|
(N)
|
(N)
|
% Chg
|
|
Date Released
|
March 26, 2015
|
March 1, 2016
|
|
Price As At Released Date
|
152.60
|
148.83
|
-2.47
|
Turnover
|
391,639,000,000
|
491,725,000,000
|
25.56
|
Profit After Tax
|
159,501,000,000
|
181,323,000,000
|
16.02
|
Shareholders' Fund
|
591,885,000,000
|
644,720,000,000
|
9.00
|
ESTIMATED RATIOS
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Earnings Per Share
|
9.36
|
10.86
|
16.02
|
PE Ratio
|
16.30
|
13.99
|
-14.17
|
Earnings Yield
|
6.13
|
7.15
|
16.65
|
Book Value
|
34.73
|
37.84
|
9.00
|
ROE (%)
|
26.95
|
28.12
|
4.34
|
Dividend Per Share
|
6.00
|
8.00
|
33.33
|
Profit Margin
|
40.73
|
36.87
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-3.86
|
Year End
|
Dec
|
Dec
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Company Financial & Investdata Research
Its strong influence on
the market as the most capitalisedstock singles it out. It may have gained the
interest of the entire traders after it carried the market along with its
trending pattern.
Please note that the N8
dividend reward stands relatively strong, when compared to the market price,
which largely accounted for investors’ confidence and sentiments for the
equity.
Technical View
Looking at
the chart, price action of Dangote Cement has been trending down from its high
of N250 to a lower low of N123.60 after trending sideways to resist a southward movement. It
thereafter gave way at the double tops that brought the price low to where it
formed a double bottom that were later supported by the impressive 2015
financials to the level of forming the current multiple tops that has now
weakened the momentum.
In the last
three months, the stock has also formed a cup and handle which is a bullish and
reversal chart pattern.
Meanwhile, any position taking at the current market value should be for the medium and long term as the stock is still attractive.
Meanwhile, any position taking at the current market value should be for the medium and long term as the stock is still attractive.
DANGCEM closed below the upper band by
20.2%. Bollinger Bands are 160.24%
wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as
compared to DANGCEM's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility
decreasing and prices entering a trading range has increased for the near-term. However, a short-term
pull-back inside the bands is likely, as other indicators like RSI arecurrently reading 66.31, CCI, SO and Money flow are signaling
SELL.
Recommendation /Analyst Opinion
Having reported
what we consider another impressive full year result under this harsh business
environment and backed with its expansion drive to other Africa countries, the
company is currently consolidating its position, while growing sales revenue
with robust profitability.
We conclude
that Dangote Cement remains in good shape. However, with the company currently
trading at 13.99 times earnings and a dividend yield of 5.38 percent, there is
value in the stock judging by its robust balance sheet, positive cash flow
generation and strong brands. All of these provide positive fundamentals for
the company. The infrastructure gap to
support agricultural development, manufacturing and housing by the government,
especially with the rebuilding of Nigeria's north east ravaged by the seven-old
battle to dislodge the Boko Haram insurgents the company's product would come
handy. Besides, DangCem's Chairman/Chief Executive, Alhaji Aliko Dangote is
co-chair of the committee in charge of rebuilding the region. This anticipated
demand for its products will drive market share and profitability in this dispensation.
We have
recommended hold before now, but based on the foregoing, among
others, we upgrade to BUY position for new entrants with long
term investment goal.
DANGOTE CEMENT
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Share Holding Structure
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Alhaji Aliko Dangote
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0.17%
|
Other Nigerian Citizens & Ass.
|
99.83%
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Other Statistics
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Shares Outstanding (MN)
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17,040,507,405
|
Opening Price (2015)
|
N200
|
Closing Price (2015)
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N170
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Closing Price as
@ March,11 2016
|
N164
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Date Listed
|
26TH October, 2010
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Year End
|
December 31st
|
Source: Company
Financial & Investdata Research
Five-Year Financial Analysis.
A look at the company's
scorecard for the five-year period, the increased capacity to satisfy Nigeria’s
rising demand for cement, estate development and other infrastructure
development have put an end to historicalreliance on imports. Today, Nigeria has
been turned into a net exporter of cement as reflected in the company's increasing
numberof millions of metric tons produced per annum and earnings released.
The regular release of its financials in compliance with the post listing requirement makes DangCem's corporate governance strong, such that investors can forecast and plan their investment.
The regular release of its financials in compliance with the post listing requirement makes DangCem's corporate governance strong, such that investors can forecast and plan their investment.
Meanwhile, the sales
revenue of the company for the period under review grew consistently from
N235.91 billion a year after it was listed on the Nigeria stock exchange to
N491.73 billion, an increase of 108.35 per cent. Also, its bottom line was up
by 44.01 per cent to N181 billion from N125.91 billion in 2011 after it hit a
profit level in excess of N200 billion in 2013.
The shareholder’s funds for the period was up by 117.94 per cent from N295.83 billion in 2011 to N644.72 billion.
The shareholder’s funds for the period was up by 117.94 per cent from N295.83 billion in 2011 to N644.72 billion.
In the last five years,
the company has consistently rewarded shareholders with dividend, supported by
improving numbers. Within the period under consideration, it had paid a total
dividend of N25.25 per share, excluding the bonus of one new ordinary share for
10 given in 2011
DANGOTE CEMENT PLC FIVE
YEARS FINANCIAL POSITIONS
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|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
|
Date Released
|
April 4,2012
|
April 22,2013
|
March 26, 2014
|
March 26, 2015
|
March1, 2016
|
|
Price @ Released
|
103.00
|
116.50
|
230
|
151.00
|
148.34
|
|
Turnover
|
235,914,000,000
|
298,454,068,000
|
386,177,220,000
|
391,687,060,000
|
491,725,000,000
|
|
Profit After Tax
|
125,909,831,000
|
145,024,234,000
|
201,198,088,000
|
159,501,493,000
|
181,323,000,000
|
|
Total Equity
|
295,827,810,000
|
404,536,401,000
|
550,093,270,000
|
591,885,155,000
|
644.720,000,000
|
|
Dividend
|
1.25
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
|
Bonus
|
1;10
|
Nil
|
Nil
|
Nil
|
NIL
|
|
Estimated Performance Ratios
The company earnings
power for the five-year period grew by 31.32 per cent to N10.86 from N8.13 in
2011, after the said earnings per share had recorded an all-time high of N12.99
in 2013, with the directors distributing a N7 dividend. The company had up and
down trend in earnings for the period due to increased investment in its
capacity building and harsh business environment.
The company recorded a Price Earnings Ratio of 13.99x in 2015, reducing investors waiting period from all time high of 17.71x in 2013 and 16.30x in 2014 respectively. On the other hand, the said earnings per share was same as 7.32 per cent of its price at the released date.
The book value as at the last financial year was N37.84, the highest so far in the company's existence as a quoted entity. This is however relatively low, compared to its market value. The growing net assets and robust retained earnings would further boost the company's business to earn more and grow shareholders funds.
The estimated ratio also reveals that Dangote Cement's profit margin for the period has consistently been above the benchmark internationally, ranging from 36.82 to 53.37 per cent. This is healthy and shows the commitment of management to reduce cost and in the process support profitability that would create value for its shareholders.
On the strength of the figures posted, the stock is fairly priced at N240 each, considering fund managers and investor’s preference for consistent dividend, competent management to drive profitability and business model of the company
The company recorded a Price Earnings Ratio of 13.99x in 2015, reducing investors waiting period from all time high of 17.71x in 2013 and 16.30x in 2014 respectively. On the other hand, the said earnings per share was same as 7.32 per cent of its price at the released date.
The book value as at the last financial year was N37.84, the highest so far in the company's existence as a quoted entity. This is however relatively low, compared to its market value. The growing net assets and robust retained earnings would further boost the company's business to earn more and grow shareholders funds.
The estimated ratio also reveals that Dangote Cement's profit margin for the period has consistently been above the benchmark internationally, ranging from 36.82 to 53.37 per cent. This is healthy and shows the commitment of management to reduce cost and in the process support profitability that would create value for its shareholders.
On the strength of the figures posted, the stock is fairly priced at N240 each, considering fund managers and investor’s preference for consistent dividend, competent management to drive profitability and business model of the company
DANGOTE CEMENT PLC- ESTIAMATED RATIOS
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2011
|
2012
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2013
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2014
|
2015
|
Earnings Per Share
|
8.13
|
9.36
|
12.99
|
9.36
|
10.86
|
PE Ratio
|
12.67
|
12.45
|
17.71
|
16.30
|
13.99
|
Earnings Yield
|
7.89
|
8.03
|
5.65
|
6.13
|
7.15
|
Book Value
|
19.09
|
26.11
|
32.28
|
34.73
|
37.84
|
ROE
|
0.43
|
0.36
|
0.37
|
0.27
|
0.28
|
Profit Margin
|
53.37
|
48.59
|
52.10
|
40.73
|
36.82
|
Year End
|
Dec
|
Dec
|
Dec
|
Dec
|
Dec
|
Source: Company Financial &
Investdata Research
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