Market Update 18
FG’s
Silent On Economic Reforms, Growth Puts pressure On Stock Market.
The market
continued to slide against our expectations last week, as the Composite index
lost momentumwith the high cap stocks suffering price losses. The sustained
trend in the market has eventually created opportunity for smart money to
accumulate strong fundamentally stocks at a discount. The new government’s
pronouncement at this point is very important with many local and international
investors awaiting policy direction as a guide to direct flow of investment and
associated risk before action is taken. The country's capacity utilisationat
60.3 per cent; interest rate at 13 per cent, inflation rate, 8.7 per cent: and
government debt to GDP ratio of 11 per cent; are indeed not bad starting points
for consolidated building of the economy. The panic selling pressure on the
exchange saw overall bearish activities resulting in the Composite NSE All
Share Index shedding161.25 basis points,closing at 33,257.90 points from an opening
figure of 33,621.75, representing a 1.08 percent decline.The negative year-to-date performance of the market slipped to
4.07 percent
NSEASI
NSEASI closed above the lower band by 19.8 per cent. Bollinger
Bands are 59.29 per cent narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility, when compared to NSE
ASI's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a
sharp movement in stock prices have increased for the near-term.The market break down of peanut formation is a sign of
weakness, but reversal is imminent as the volume traded continued to thin out,
due to the fact that the market is waiting to see the reform policies to be
unveiled by the government. The current mood of the market calls for the very
short trading, using tops and bottoms as guide for positioning, giving thatthe
trend is below the 50 days moving average.
The
bears extendedtheir dominance of activities last week. Market breadth closed in
favour of the bears as more equities closed negative in all but one of the
trading days this week. Consequently, the ASI recorded gains (+0.29%) in just
one of trading days. Generally, transaction level appreciated relative to last
week's levels on the activities of bargain hunters and special trading. The index
traded in the lower band of 33,000 psychological line. In the same negative
trend, market capitalisation shed about N125billion to close at N11.35 billion last
week largely driven by sell-off activities in high caps. With the exception of the
NSEASEM and NSEINS, that recorded positive returns of 0.17 and 0.77 percent
respectively, other sector indices closed in red, led by NSEOILGAS with -1.88
percent as pessimism persists in the market
The
market transaction level in terms of volume of trades, dropped 20 percent,
while value of trades increased by 24 percent relative to the numbers recorded
in the previous trading week. At the close of trading activities this week, 1.24
billion shares valued at N21.72 billion were exchanged in 18,625 deals, compared
with 1.54 billion shares valued at N17.52 billion exchanged in 17,349 deals in
the previous trading week.
During
the week, the NSE ASI remained in the red on weak investors' risk appetite for
equities, with the new government remaining silent on its economic policy.
Market Outlook
We
expect the market to remain in the same mood, unless there is a statement from
the government on the economy or any news on fundamentals that would boost the
market. Traders and Investors taking this opportunity to build portfolio should
think medium and long-term, as the market moves close to bottoming out.
STOCKS TO WATCH
Africa
Prudential, Zenith Bank, NB, Flourmills, Access Bank, FBN Holdings, Transcorp,
Dangote Cement and United Capital
DIVIDEND STOCKS
|
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Company
|
Dividend
|
Q4 Eps 2014
|
Q2 Eps 2014
|
Africa prudential
|
0.35
|
0.61
|
0.28
|
Total oil Nigeria
|
9.00
|
13.03
|
6.14
|
GTB
|
1.50
|
3.35
|
1.5
|
Zenith bank
|
1.75
|
3.17
|
0.76
|
Mobil oil
|
6.60
|
17.73
|
13.36
|
UACN
|
1.75
|
1.75
|
1.81
|
Access bank
|
0.35
|
1.88
|
0.99
|
NB
|
3.50
|
5.62
|
3.16
|
Dangote cement
|
6.00
|
10.84
|
5.6
|
Lafarge africa
|
3.60
|
7.61
|
5.18
|
Dangote sugar
|
0.40
|
0.97
|
0.57
|
FBNH
|
0.10
|
2.54
|
1.14
|
GSK
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SECOND QUARTER EXPECTED EARINING IN JULY
2015
|
|||
Securities
|
Q4 Eps 2014
|
Q2 Eps 2014
|
|
Livestock Feed
|
0.13
|
0.04
|
|
Zenith Bank
|
3.17
|
0.76
|
|
Africa Prudeential
|
0.61
|
0.28
|
|
Transnational Corp
|
0.09
|
0.18
|
|
UACN
|
1.75
|
1.81
|
|
Cadbury
|
0.81
|
0.69
|
|
GTBank
|
3.35
|
1.5
|
|
Nestle Nigeria
|
28.05
|
14.93
|
|
NB
|
5.62
|
3.16
|
|
Unilever
|
0.64
|
0.39
|
|
UBA
|
|
0.69
|
|
Access Bank
|
1.88
|
0.99
|
|
Diamond Bank
|
1.96
|
0.95
|
|
FBNH
|
2.54
|
1.14
|
|
FCMB
|
1.12
|
0.48
|
|
Fidelity Bank
|
0.48
|
0.28
|
|
Dangote Cement
|
10.84
|
5.6
|
|
Skye Bank
|
0.56
|
0.44
|
|
Stanbic IBTC
|
3.15
|
1.59
|
|
Sterling Bank
|
0.25
|
0.26
|
|
Lafarge Africa
|
7.61
|
5.18
|
|
Unity Bank
|
0.09
|
0.1
|
|
Wema Bank
|
0.06
|
0.04
|
|
Nahco
|
0.39
|
0.26
|
|
May & Baker
|
0.06
|
0.04
|
|
Pharm Deko
|
1.01
|
1.07
|
|
Courtevil Business
|
0.09
|
0.06
|
|
Berger Paints
|
0.51
|
0.37
|
|
CAP
|
2.37
|
0.83
|
|
CCNN
|
1.53
|
1.26
|
|
Forte Oil
|
3.10
|
2.90
|
|
Trans-Nationwide
|
0.34
|
0.07
|
|
Portland Paints
|
0.37
|
0.31
|
|
Premer Paints
|
0.07
|
0.02
|
|
Eterna Oil
|
0.99
|
0.75
|
|
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